Consumer demand — and the goods to satisfy that demand — has been on a roller coaster ride since March 2020. Even as pandemic disruptions are easing, new economic shocks have sent inflation soaring. 

But there might be a silver lining for consumers, according to Julie Ramhold, a consumer analyst for DealNews. Retailers ordered extra inventory as insurance against supply chain delays, and now, thanks to inflation and a pull-back in consumer spending, their warehouses are overflowing. For shoppers who know where to look, that could mean big bargains.

When COVID kept most people home, many consumers had extra cash that they weren't spending on eating out, entertainment, or travel. That led to a spike in spending on physical goods at a moment when supply chains were fractured by COVID lockdowns, leaving retailers scrambling to fill orders and keep shelves stocked. 

And the disruptions continued past the initial lockdown period. "Basically, 2021 was plagued the entire year by supply-chain disruptions," Ramhold says.

Now, as travel has returned to pre-pandemic levels and people are returning to the office, consumer spending has shifted again. Retailers who stockpiled merchandise as insurance against disordered supply chains are now stuck with excess stock that isn't selling. 

The decline in remote work, says Ramhold, "shifted the demand away from things like casual clothing." Plus, she notes, many people have already made big purchases to furnish home offices or upgrade home furnishings, so that demand has dwindled. 

She sees consumer focus shifting from big-ticket items to smaller, decorative pieces for the home as people begin to welcome visitors again.

That's terrible news for retailers, but it could be good news for you if you're in the market for those items because you can probably find more significant discounts earlier in the season on the products you need.

"If you're looking for excess inventory, the biggest categories that we're seeing are home furniture pieces and casual clothing," Ramhold says. And you can find savings in other categories as well.

Overstocked sales can give you a double edge on inflation because rising prices "may have affected overstock to a lesser degree because retailers bought those items before prices went up," Ramhold says.

Don't expect promos to announce that a sale is an overstock clearance; just look for deeper discounts and deals during the height of the season, and you're probably benefitting from a retailer's pandemic stockpile.

Here's where to look for the best overstock bargains, according to Ramhold.

Most years, for outdoor furniture, "the really great deals start to come during August and September," Ramhold says. But, this year, "They're already discounting these things well before what we're used to seeing."

That means you could fancy up your patio while it's still outdoor-entertaining weather. Ramhold notes that Target is already offering 30% savings on some items, and Home Depot and Lowe's are doing the same. 

If you can wait until fall, when patio furnishings typically go on sale, you might be able to get even larger discounts. However, Ramhold says, "If the price is low enough [now], it's probably not going to go lower even when the sales roll around next month."

An early July sale on major appliances at Lowe's got Ramhold's Spidey sense tingling: Save $750 when you buy a suite of appliances. Home Depot was offering a similar deal, both around Prime Day, and she thinks that's probably a sign that those stores have too many fridges, stoves, dishwashers, and other major appliances in their warehouses.

The chip shortages that led to long waits for appliances for home remodels last year have stabilized, and now Ramhold is seeing discounts of 30% to 40% at some stores. 

But not every big box store is giving deep discounts. She notes that Best Buy is offering a much smaller deal: a $100 gift card with a $1,500 purchase. So, it's a good idea to shop around to find bargains.

Black Friday in November is the day Amazon and other retailers traditionally offer huge discounts on televisions, not Prime Day in July.

However, this July's Prime Day deals included huge bargains on TVs, like a 32" Fire TV for as low as $50. "There's a real chance they are trying to get rid of excess TVs," Ramhold says.

Ramhold thinks overstock in TVs might be less due to pandemic supply chain glitches and more that people aren't replacing their sets as often. In the past, new TVs "were literally better than what came out the year before," she says. 

Now the technological improvements have "kind of plateaued," and the newer models aren't as significant an improvement over older TVs. That means sets are moving more slowly, and you might be able to save big on the overstock.

"Retailers spent much of 2020 having to deal with casual clothes," Ramhold says, while office-wear sales plummeted. Now, people aren't stocking up on casual wear, so you can get bargains on clothing for summer now rather than waiting until the end of the season to score deals.

For example, Ramhold says, stores like Gap, Target, and Walmart that usually wait till Labor Day for significant markdowns have already started offering deep discounts on summer items. You could score a new swimsuit for a bargain price in time to hit the beach.

"Don't assume that the overstock issues are just with the big box retailers," says Ramhold. Department stores like Macy's and JCPenney might need to unload some items. 

She suggests checking your favorite retailers because you'll more easily recognize a standout deal at a store where you're familiar with their standard pricing. 

And don't forget local retailers who also might have excess stock to unload. "Small businesses still need support after the pandemic," Ramhold says. "It's a good time to give them some extra love." 

But, if you don't need it, a purchase is not a bargain, even at a steep discount. "Don't buy things just because they are on sale," Ramhold says, and stay within your budget.

Disclosure: This post may highlight financial products and services that can help you make smarter decisions with your money. We do not give investment advice or encourage you to adopt a certain investment strategy. What you decide to do with your money is up to you. If you take action based on one of our recommendations, we get a small share of the revenue from our commerce partners. This does not influence whether we feature a financial product or service. We operate independently from our advertising sales team. Read our editorial standards.